[pp.31-40]

Real Option Study on the Investment Policy for the Enterprise which Recycles ASR (Automobile Shredder Residue) with a Py

Takashi AMEMIYA, Ryuji MATSUHASHI and Yoshikuni YOSHIDA （The University of Tokyo）

Abstract:
A real option study on investment profitability of a ASR recycling system using pyrolysis gasification process is conducted considering a Brownian price fluctuation model of actual scrap iron, copper, and aluminum markets. It is clarified that “Investment maximum critical value” I*, which is calculated from the expected present value of accumulated profits of the enterprise, will determine if the enterprise should start immediately or remain on hold. An example study on investment in ASR recycling enterprise with 5year operation showed that I* is usually smaller than the accumulated profits of the enterprise by around 15% so that a large initial investment is hard to be immediately executed. In order to accelerate such investment in the enterprise, it is shown efficient to keep or decrease the ASR treatment unit fee per input ton rather than to raise the unit fee in the future. Furthermore, when CO2 credit is acquired for the outstanding CO2 emissionsaving performance which the pyrolysis gasification process has, it will be more profitable to execute an earlier investment.

Key Word:
real option, ASR, end of life vehicle recycling, pyrolysis gasification

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