[pp.1-8]

Models for Forecasting the Installation of Low-carbon Technologies within the Household Sector

Kae TAKASE,Ryuji MATSUHASHI and Yoshikuni YOSHIDA （Japan Science and Technology Agency / Governance Design Laboratory, Inc. / The University of Tokyo）

Abstract:
We developed models for estimating the future installation rates of low-carbo technologies (e.g., photovoltaics, solar heating systems, fuel cells, and batteries) in the household sector. We disseminated questionnaire surveys for conjoint analyses to obtain utility functions with attributes for total payment and payback periods. Logit models were formulated using both the utility functions from conjoint analyses (i.e., stated preferences) and the statistical data on installation rates (i.e., revealed preferences). Assuming the latest bottom-up cost estimates, rooftop photovoltaics will likely reach a saturation level of 66 GW by 2020. By 2030, we estimate that 30%, 32%, and 3% of all detached houses will use solar water heaters, fuel cells (reaching a 6.5 GW electricity generation capacity), and batteries (with a storage capacity of 4.5 GWh), respectively. The use of these alternative energy technologies could reduce CO2 emissions by 31 Mt-CO2 in 2030, which would account for 3% of the 2011 national emissions in Japan.

Key Word:
low-carbon technologies, household sector, conjoint analysis, logit model

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