[pp.25-36]

Multi-Dimensional Analyses on Climate Sensitivity and Socio-economic Factors to National Cereal Production: A comparativ

Akio TAKEMOTO （The University of Tokyo）

Abstract:
This paper performs national comparative analyses on the impacts of climate change on cereal yield in 21 countries with statistical methods including regression model analyses. The results from sensitivity analysis of climate variability support the hypothesis that cereal production is influenced by the annual climatic variability, such as change of temperature and amount of precipitation. The contributing rate of climate impacts to the vulnerability of yield of all cereals (climate impact ratio) ranges from 10 to 70% of the total cereal vulnerability, expressing high climate sensitivity in some countries such as North Africa, West Europe and Japan. The magnitude of cereal vulnerability is significant in many African and Middle Eastern countries even though some of these countries have low contributing rate of climate impacts. Many Asian and European countries have high climate impact ratio; however, magnitude of vulnerability of yield to climate impacts is small in these countries due to smallness of total cereal vulnerability which might reflect low influence of socio-economic factors. These analyses are beneficial for a comparative assessment on impacts and vulnerability of climate change in agriculture.

Key Word:
climate change, impact assessment, regression analysis, yield, vulnerability

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