[pp.7-14]

A Trend Analysis of Power Consumption in the Greater Tokyo and Osaka Areas for 2010, 2011, and 2012

Daisuke KATO, Kanako TANAKA, Michinori KIMURA, Tomoko IWATA, Ryuji MATSUHASHI and Koichi YAMADA （Japan Science and Technology Agency / the University of Tokyo）

Abstract:
We have analyzed power consumption data in the greater Tokyo and Osaka areas for 2010, 2011, and 2012. Based on analyses using the forecasting model for power consumption constructed by Kato et al., we find that the component of power consumption depending on temperature decreases about 0.4 GW and 0.24 GW per oC from 2010 to 2012 in the greater Tokyo and Osaka areas, respectively. Considering that power consumption in the greater Osaka area is approximately one half of that in the greater Tokyo area, these values are comparable each other. On the other hand, the decrease of the component of power consumption not depending on temperature of 0.8 GW in the greater Osaka area is smaller than that in the greater Tokyo area, which was about 4 GW. The amount of power consumption per person in the greater Osaka area is about 10 % larger than that in the greater Tokyo area in 2012. These trends are due to the different levels of consciousness about blackout risks for the different areas and years. We also find negative offsets on Thursday and Friday only in 2011 in both areas. This is due to the holiday shift from Saturday and Sunday to Thursday and Friday by the automobile companies from July to September of 2011.

Key Word:
power consumption, forecasting model, saving electricity, power demand

PDFダウンロード（会員限定）