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Journal of Environmental Information Science Vol.35 No.5 (2007年)
[pp.37-46]
Population Migration, Urbanization and Their Implication for Urban Housing Demand in China
Ji HAN, Hidefumi IMURA, Akio ONISHI and Hiroaki SHIRAKAWA （Nagoya University / Research Institute for Humanity and Nature）
Abstract:
This paper studies socio-economic development including population migration, urbanization and their implication for urban housing demand in China. Firstly, we analyze the determinants of migration and urban housing growth by regression models. Secondly, the authors develop scenarios integrating economic growth, migration and urbanization up until 2020. Finally, we evaluate the influence of migration and urbanization on urban housing demand. The main findings are: a) In the past decades, about 80% of urban population growth is due to the rural-urban migration. Inter-provincial migration is encouraged by income gap, migration stock and discouraged by distance. b) In 2020, migration and urbanization will cause urban housing demand increase by 8.92% and 2.93% in Eastern Region and whole China, while decrease by 5.24% and 5.35% in Middle and Western Region respectively.
Key Word:
environmental issues, population migration, urbanization, urban housing demand